Dans une tribune adressée à Jeune Afrique, Abdoulaye Daouda Diallo, ministre des Finances du président sénégalais Macky Sall, répond aux arguments des opposants, dont son homologue béninois, à la demande d’annulation des créances institutionnelles des pays africains dans le contexte de la pandémie du Covid-19.
Le 23 avril, Romuald Wadagni, ministre de l’Économie et des Finances de la République du Bénin, a publié dans Jeune Afrique une tribune intitulée « Covid-19 : pourquoi l’allègement de la dette n’est pas la solution ». Dans la présentation de l’article, il est mentionné que la tribune prend une position contraire à celle de Son Excellence Macky Sall, président de la République du Sénégal.
Notre contribution vise à clarifier certains faits, ainsi que les arguments sur le sujet de la dette des pays africains dont les économies subissent les effets du Covid-19. En Afrique, l’impact de cette pandémie sera important. La Commission économique des Nations unies pour l’Afrique (CEA) anticipe un taux de croissance de 1,8 %, contre une hausse de 3,2 % initialement prévue en 2020, sous l’effet de la perturbation des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales, de la baisse des prix des matières premières et des transferts effectués par les migrants.
Pour la zone Uemoa, les premières estimations font ressortir une diminution de 3,9 % de la croissance du PIB, qui se situerait à +2,7 % contre une progression de +6,6 % initialement prévue pour 2020. Une étude de la Cedeao évalue la perte cumulée de ressources financières pour des scénarios projetant le terme de la crise à la fin juin 2020, à la fin septembre 2020 et à la fin décembre 2020 respectivement à 36,4 milliards de dollars, 63,2 milliards de dollars et 73 milliards de dollars.
Ces projections ont amené les institutions régionales et sous-régionales à définir une position commune sur le traitement de la dette dans le cadre des initiatives pour faire face aux conséquences sanitaires et économiques du Covid-19. Le communiqué final de la session extraordinaire des chefs d’État et de gouvernement de la Cedeao du 23 avril est sans ambiguïté. Ils soutiennent l’initiative de l’Union africaine (UA) de négocier avec les partenaires pour une annulation de la dette auprès de créanciers publics et des institutions multilatérales.
Riposte urgente et de court terme
La position de la Cedeao procède d’un pragmatisme dans la prise en charge des besoins nouveaux induits par la pandémie. Elle traduit la volonté marquée dans le sens d’efforts de réallocation budgétaire, ensuite de mobilisation de dons et de contributions volontaires, puis d’emprunts nouveaux concessionnels pour faire face aux urgences.
À ces mesures d’endiguement des effets de la pandémie grâce à la stabilisation du cadre macroéconomique, qui relèvent de la riposte urgente et de court terme, s’ajoute le plaidoyer pour un sursis suffisamment long du remboursement du service de la dette institutionnelle et, ultérieurement, une annulation de son encours.
Au regard de l’urgence, certes, un moratoire est une bonne chose, mais les situations budgétaires difficiles de nombreux États africains, limitant les capacités de réponse à la crise, ainsi que les effets du double choc de demande et d’offre sur les marchés du pétrole, appellent des mesures aussi ambitieuses que celles prises en 2009 à travers l’initiative PPTE. L’Afrique doit absolument éviter que cette crise sanitaire ne débouche sur un drame économique et social. Elle doit disposer d’un espace budgétaire supplémentaire pour faire face aux effets durables de la crise, notamment par des investissements visant à accroître la résilience économique et sociale.
En clair, l’objectif des moratoires sur des périodes suffisamment longues et de l’annulation de la dette institutionnelle est de libérer des capacités budgétaires pour renforcer les fondamentaux, de manière à maintenir les capacités de production et le pouvoir d’achat des ménages, notamment ceux qui sont vulnérables.
Quel sera, donc, l’impact d’un allègement de la dette sur l’image des États africains, notamment la perception de leur qualité de crédit ? En réalité, la perception de la qualité de crédit repose essentiellement sur deux éléments : la capacité ainsi que la volonté d’honorer, à date, les engagements financiers souscrits. La volonté de nos États d’assurer le service de la dette ne doit souffrir d’aucune équivoque. Des pays comme le Sénégal ont toujours été responsables dans la gestion de leur dette ; ce qui leur a valu de ne jamais être en défaut. Ainsi, l’appréciation, en termes de dégradation de la perception des créanciers sur les pays africains, est à relativiser.
Endettement responsable
Par ailleurs, le Sénégal – comme d’autres pays bénéficiaires dans le passé des initiatives PPTE – ont adopté une politique de gestion prudente, efficace et responsable de leur dette. La bonne mise en œuvre de cette politique dans le cadre d’une stratégie bien définie, selon des normes de l’Uemoa, des organes de gouvernance bien structurés avec des capacités avérées ont donné au Sénégal une double notation de S&P et de Moody’s qui le place au rang des émetteurs souverains de référence en Afrique.
L’endettement responsable se mesure à l’aune du respect à date des échéances d’engagements financiers. Des pays comme le Sénégal, faut-il le rappeler, n’ont jamais fait défaut à ce niveau, offrant ainsi un profil de débiteur évalué positivement aussi bien par les partenaires techniques et financiers, les bailleurs de fonds que par les investisseurs des marchés de capitaux.
Ce profil d’émetteur souverain de référence bénéficie d’une prime de risque nettement plus appréciée par les investisseurs qui accompagnent le Sénégal sur des émissions de maturité à trente ans.
Enfin, ce qui est proposé par le ministre béninois de l’Économie et des Finances – c’est-à-dire la mobilisation urgente de liquidités nouvelles, via des financements concessionnels et semi-concessionnels-des institutions multilatérales, hormis la création d’un véhicule financier ad hoc – correspond, en réalité, aux instruments de financements qui sont déjà disponibles pour les pays africains.
Cela dit, les annulations de la dette auprès des créanciers institutionnels sur des niveaux importants permettront d’obtenir des marges de manœuvres conséquentes pour un tel refinancement, en plus de pouvoir être utilisées pour des investissements structurants et à fort impact sur la croissance et l’emploi.
En cela, l’annulation de la dette institutionnelle sous forme de conversion en programmes d’investissements orientés sur des besoins de relance économique et de résilience sociale dans un monde post Covid-19 demeure une option intéressante pour l’Afrique et ses partenaires. Ainsi, le leadership du président Macky Sall est motivé par la volonté d’aboutir à des mesures fortes qui permettront à l’Afrique de poursuivre sa marche vers l’émergence.
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